Bitcoin Volatility Token (BVOL) price, marketcap, chart ...

Bitcoin market cycle update

Major Cycle Analysis
Note: Research data compiled from blockchain.info, coinmetrics and unchainedcapital.
Bitcoin
As we mentioned in our most recent edition (June) the Bitcoin price has decoupled from the underlying fundamental valuation according to the most relevant metrics. On chain metrics have been implying that Bitcoin is overbought throughout most of this rally. The NVTS ratio for example is seeing its highest levels in 18 months and has finally crossed the overbought level in sync with the most recent sell-off.
It is not uncommon for on-chain metrics and fundamentals to be completely ignored during these types of parabolic moves. The Bitcoin market is still made up majoritively by non-institutional investors and while capital from institutions and professional investors is flowing in gradually, we are currently trading in a very new and unsophisticated market.
This is one of the key reasons we are able to profit so reliably. Emotions run high, there are no trading bots with formulas sophisticated enough to truly know the true price of Bitcoin and the markets are irrational, driven in the most part by fear and greed.
The most recent price balloon to $14,000 followed by a sell off with volumes the largest we have seen since the November 2018 capitulation is one such example.
We will keep you, our traders, informed of any and all portfolio and position adjustments in our trading academy as we always do. I expect the volatility to be substantial, meaning any trading advice given here is likely to be outdated by the time you are reading this.
For this reason this newsletter will be shorter than usual with the majority of our focus now taken away from the fundamentals and onto the recent price action.
Who Is Selling?
The active portion of the total Bitcoin supply (coins that have moved within the last 3 months) has been increasing while all other bands remain flat or moving in the inverse direction (holders continue to hold).
The new sellers are mostly made up of traders and individuals that have been holding for 3-6 months. Some traders are locking profits, others are turning their outlook from bullish to bearish after the swift rise in price and others are selling out to buy more on the dips and increase their overall profits.
This type of trading environment is the fundamental basis for a market that makes higher lows and higher highs. As the sellers are only selling out in an attempt to buy back in at a lower price in the near future.
Long term holders appear to be unphased by the sharp increase in price with their eyes set on a much bigger goal than 100-200% profits. This is a strong fundamental indicator that we are at the beginning of a new long term market cycle. Combine this with the fact that 21.5% of coins have not moved at all in the last 5 years you begin to see that long term holders truly aren’t joining the ranks of sellers even after such a sharp increase in price.
Exchange Flows and Altcoins
We have been monitoring exchange inflows and outflows meticulously. We saw record outflows during April and May, which makes sense considering the majority of buyers during that period were long term investors looking to move their Bitcoin off exchange and into cold storage.
Recently we have noticed an extremely large increase in the inflows to Binance. Generally, a move of this proportion would suggest a sell off. I believe that the reason is twofold. Yes, there were funds moved to Binance to be sold during the most recent parabolic extension. However, it leaves the possibility that individuals may be thinking about moving Bitcoin into alts.
Since Bitcoin exploded in April, alts have significantly underperformed. One could theorise that as the blow off top from the most recent Bitcoin move settles, Bitcoin may trade sideways and create the opportunity for alt season to begin.
Bitcoin dominance has gone from around 50% to a whopping 63% at the end of June and we are still riding that Bitcoin wave right now, however we will be watching any advances in alts closely if Bitcoin appears to stabilise and positive sentiment returns to the altcoin market.
Safe trading - The Team at Boss Crypto
...
Taken from the Boss Crypto VIP research channel at https://bosscrypto.co/
submitted by BawsCole to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Crypto market cycle update

Major Cycle Analysis
Note: Research data compiled from blockchain.info, coinmetrics and unchainedcapital.
Bitcoin
As we mentioned in our most recent edition (June) the Bitcoin price has decoupled from the underlying fundamental valuation according to the most relevant metrics. On chain metrics have been implying that Bitcoin is overbought throughout most of this rally. The NVTS ratio for example is seeing its highest levels in 18 months and has finally crossed the overbought level in sync with the most recent sell-off.
It is not uncommon for on-chain metrics and fundamentals to be completely ignored during these types of parabolic moves. The Bitcoin market is still made up majoritively by non-institutional investors and while capital from institutions and professional investors is flowing in gradually, we are currently trading in a very new and unsophisticated market.
This is one of the key reasons we are able to profit so reliably. Emotions run high, there are no trading bots with formulas sophisticated enough to truly know the true price of Bitcoin and the markets are irrational, driven in the most part by fear and greed.
The most recent price balloon to $14,000 followed by a sell off with volumes the largest we have seen since the November 2018 capitulation is one such example.
We will keep you, our traders, informed of any and all portfolio and position adjustments in our trading academy as we always do. I expect the volatility to be substantial, meaning any trading advice given here is likely to be outdated by the time you are reading this.
For this reason this newsletter will be shorter than usual with the majority of our focus now taken away from the fundamentals and onto the recent price action.
Who Is Selling?
The active portion of the total Bitcoin supply (coins that have moved within the last 3 months) has been increasing while all other bands remain flat or moving in the inverse direction (holders continue to hold).
The new sellers are mostly made up of traders and individuals that have been holding for 3-6 months. Some traders are locking profits, others are turning their outlook from bullish to bearish after the swift rise in price and others are selling out to buy more on the dips and increase their overall profits.
This type of trading environment is the fundamental basis for a market that makes higher lows and higher highs. As the sellers are only selling out in an attempt to buy back in at a lower price in the near future.
Long term holders appear to be unphased by the sharp increase in price with their eyes set on a much bigger goal than 100-200% profits. This is a strong fundamental indicator that we are at the beginning of a new long term market cycle. Combine this with the fact that 21.5% of coins have not moved at all in the last 5 years you begin to see that long term holders truly aren’t joining the ranks of sellers even after such a sharp increase in price.
Exchange Flows and Altcoins
We have been monitoring exchange inflows and outflows meticulously. We saw record outflows during April and May, which makes sense considering the majority of buyers during that period were long term investors looking to move their Bitcoin off exchange and into cold storage.
Recently we have noticed an extremely large increase in the inflows to Binance. Generally, a move of this proportion would suggest a sell off. I believe that the reason is twofold. Yes, there were funds moved to Binance to be sold during the most recent parabolic extension. However, it leaves the possibility that individuals may be thinking about moving Bitcoin into alts.
Since Bitcoin exploded in April, alts have significantly underperformed. One could theorise that as the blow off top from the most recent Bitcoin move settles, Bitcoin may trade sideways and create the opportunity for alt season to begin.
Bitcoin dominance has gone from around 50% to a whopping 63% at the end of June and we are still riding that Bitcoin wave right now, however we will be watching any advances in alts closely if Bitcoin appears to stabilise and positive sentiment returns to the altcoin market.
Safe trading - The Team at Boss Crypto
...
Taken from the Boss Crypto VIP research channel at https://bosscrypto.co/
submitted by BawsCole to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

A word of caution. All major exchanges are not even fiat gateways. The actual fiat in the system is likely grossly overestimated. Crypto is decoupled from USD. Implications.

First of all i should disclose i'm fully out of crypto since last Sunday, i'm just waiting for my EUR wire from Bitstamp as that has been my gateway since 2014. I would like to thank bitcoinmarkets for the good times, i've been around for a long time but not really participating that much, and even when I did i used throwaways. I decided to make this topic as a warning and to explain why I got out and why I think you should be very careful.
So we have a situation in which:
1) 80% or more of trading is in USDT (tether)
2) Coinmarket cap is an accomplice to Bitfinex which implies USDT-USD parity. To which degree this is intentional, irresponsibility or just incompetence I would not know. Basically conimarketplace lumps all USDT trades and prices with actual USD trades and prices. If you go there https://coinmarketcap.com/ and try to select PAIR, you get THIS. No USDT, even though most exchanges are USDT. Even if most of liquidity is USDT. Again, this is a major factor in implying parity along with what Bitfinex/Tether try to do. As if this wasn't enough, they also willingly or stupidly inflate USDT price itself. I have to remind you Coinmarketcap is THE point of reference for all cryptosphere. It's oscilating Alexa rank is 100-400. Betfair (real life gambling company) for example uses coinmarket price average for their own system. etc.
3) If/when tethebitfinex crashes, not only does bitfinex crash, it will crash all crypto pairings using USDT on all exchanges using USDT.
4) There are very few fiat gateways. Until recently I assumed the major(top) exchanges have some kind of fiat pairing. I mean.. any respectable exchange would have some way of actually getting money in and out, right? I didn't even think to check. Well, they don't. Literally all the major exchanges are USDT (and/or another stablecoin or proprietary coin) and nothing else. No USD, no EUR, no fiat whatsoever. https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/ . Only the 11th one has actual USD pairing. Didn't check lower but most exchanges don't have fiat. I did a full check on Binance myself as it's the biggest exchange and I had an account there for lulz. There is no fiat.
What does this mean? It means that an allegedly 200 BILLION market cap of all crypto has a fiat gateway of only a couple of exchanges. Most exchanges not using any fiat are not only immune to the risk, they offload risk on the much smaller exchanges that are fiat gateways. And on clients, of course. The cash side of the actual exchanges would need to have to siphon even a fraction of this are unimaginable. If any of these exchanges use crypto to evaluate their own fiat balance (it is illegal but crypto is hardly regulated or audited), they're fucked.
5) If the first four points looked bad, this one is by far the worst. The system is running on a presumed liquidity provided by Tether and on presumed USD capital. Even if tether was legit it's just 2b USD rolling 200b USD. And that 200b USD is just presumed quantity of USD that is in. We don't know how much USD is in the system, there could be and there probably is way less, as over the past 8 years or so crypto ran mostly on funny exchanges that could "provide" whatever USD value they wanted. More so, even if they went bust, people would usually get to withdraw crypto and store it on some other exchange. Even when an exchange was slowly withering, people just pulled out crypto and the exchange actual liquidity was hardly tested out. Or btc-e crashing or MtGox crashing. Their cash side crashed but "crypto" side did not crash. It was bailed out so to speak. So we have crypto running around that should've been worth 1/10 or 1/100 of it's price but it's instead running on par value with crypto on legit exchanges. This grossly inflates price.
Even if tether (or other stablecoin) is legit, it can be drained in a couple of hours. What happens to the pairings of crypto/USDT? People just trade one bitcoin at the presumable price of 6k for 6k USDT that are 100% backed but have no value because there's no USD in the treasury? Who is stupid enough to deposit USD there to get stuck waiting for another fool to bail him out by getting himself stuck?
edit: [Even if tether is 1%, it holds much more assumed/created value, which is the actual issue. Look at it this way. It only adds 1 cent to a real dollar market buy order for example. Each buy order made in a system that implies USDT:USD parity is now worth 1% more than a true USD purchase. Now repeat that buy order millions of times. It's not 1.01+1.01 times 1 million. It's more like 1.01$1.000.000 Each added value comes from USDT injection and USDT has to be liquid on the way down as well. It's added value to the market value is NOT it's market cap. That's a shitfest all "stablecoins" inject into the market, no matter how backed or audited they are.]
As I was saying, all the exchanges that are not holding any fiat are immune to any crash or actual liability. If/when cryptos fail, they'll give you back any number of cryptos/stablecoins you had, even if they're worthless. It's just entries in a database. If/when USDT fails, all it's corresponding crypto prices will go to infinity. If you're holding any USDT, you can't get out of the exchange because 1 btc will cost infinity. If you're in any margin position, no matter where your stops are you'll get margin called instead, as stops are just suggestions in high/extreme volatility. You can't get out through fiat cause there's no fiat.
Your only hope is you were actually holding crypto and they don't block withdrawals. Best case scenario you move your crypto to a fiat gateway exchange and hope to cash out there as fast as possible because it will have had become evident that cryptos were overvalued because of USDT (and even hypothetical USD in the system). Will most likely be too late as people that were already in fiat gateway exchanges already sold/cashed out. There will be enormous sell pressure. And no buyers.
The whole stablecoin issuance is idiotic and I just hope it crashes now and we won't see another bubble built on presumed capital, cause that will hurt way more people. All of this is a mess. Crypto is completely decoupled from real fiat now. The potential money that are in the crypto sphere is exponentially greater than available money to trade out of. Or maybe we should be grateful for stablecoins for finally crashing a system that would've crashed anyway in the long run.
submitted by 5ty54y5yh45 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

A word of caution. All major exchanges are not even fiat gateways. The actual fiat in the system is likely grossly overestimated. Crypto is decoupled from USD. Implications.

So we have a situation in which:
1) 80% or more of trading is in USDT (tether)
2) Coinmarket cap is an accomplice to Bitfinex which implies USDT-USD parity. To which degree this is intentional, irresponsibility or just incompetence I would not know. Basically conimarketplace lumps all USDT trades and prices with actual USD trades and prices. If you go there https://coinmarketcap.com/ and try to select PAIR, you get THIS. No USDT, even though most exchanges are USDT. Even if most of liquidity is USDT. Again, this is a major factor in implying parity along with what Bitfinex/Tether try to do. As if this wasn't enough, they also willingly or stupidly inflate USDT price itself. I have to remind you Coinmarketcap is THE point of reference for all cryptosphere. It's oscilating Alexa rank is 100-400. Betfair (real life gambling company) for example uses coinmarket price average for their own system. etc.
3) If/when tethebitfinex crashes, not only does bitfinex crash, it will crash all crypto pairings using USDT on all exchanges using USDT.
4) There are very few fiat gateways. Until recently I assumed the major(top) exchanges have some kind of fiat pairing. I mean.. any respectable exchange would have some way of actually getting money in and out, right? I didn't even think to check. Well, they don't. Literally all the major exchanges are USDT (and/or another stablecoin or proprietary coin) and nothing else. No USD, no EUR, no fiat whatsoever. https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/ . Only the 11th one has actual USD pairing. Didn't check lower but most exchanges don't have fiat. I did a full check on Binance myself as it's the biggest exchange and I had an account there for lulz. There is no fiat.
What does this mean? It means that an allegedly 200 BILLION market cap of all crypto has a fiat gateway of only a couple of exchanges. Most exchanges not using any fiat are not only immune to the risk, they offload risk on the much smaller exchanges that are fiat gateways. And on clients, of course. The cash side of the actual exchanges would need to have to siphon even a fraction of this are unimaginable. If any of these exchanges use crypto to evaluate their own fiat reserves (it is illegal but crypto is hardly regulated or audited), they're fucked.
5) If the first four points looked bad, this one is by far the worst. The system is running on a presumed liquidity provided by Tether and on presumed USD capital. Even if tether was legit it's just 2b USD rolling 200b USD. And that 200b USD is just presumed quantity of USD that is in. We don't know how much USD is in the system, there could be and there probably is way less, as over the past 8 years or so crypto ran mostly on funny exchanges that could "provide" whatever USD value they wanted. More so, even if they went bust, people would usually get to withdraw crypto and store it on some other exchange. Even when an exchange was slowly withering, people just pulled out crypto and the exchange actual liquidity was hardly tested out. Or btc-e crashing or MtGox crashing. Their cash side crashed but "crypto" side did not crash. It was bailed out so to speak. So we have crypto running around that should've been worth 1/10 or 1/100 of it's price but it's instead running on par value with crypto on legit exchanges. This grossly inflates price.
Even if tether is legit, it can be drained in a couple of hours. What happens to the pairings of crypto/USDT? People just trade one bitcoin at the presumable price of 6k for 6k USDT that are 100% backed but have no value because there's no USD in the treasury? Who is stupid enough to deposit USD there to get stuck waiting for another fool to bail him out by getting himself stuck?
Even if tether is 1% it holds much more assumed value, which is the actual issue. Let's say only adds 1 cent to a real dollar market buy order for example. Each buy order made in a system that implies USDT:USD parity is now worth 1% more than a true USD purchase. Now repeat that buy order millions of times. Each added value comes from USDT injection and USDT has to be liquid on the way down as well. It's added value to the market value is not it's market cap.
As I was saying, all the exchanges that are not holding any fiat are immune to any crash or actual liability. If/when cryptos fail, they'll give you back any number of cryptos/stablecoins you had, even if they're worthless. It's just entries in a database. If/when USDT fails, all it's corresponding crypto prices will go to infinity. If you're holding any USDT, you can't get out of the exchange because 1 btc will cost infinity. If you're in any margin position, no matter where your stops are you'll get margin called instead, as stops are just suggestions in high/extreme volatility. You can't get out through fiat cause there's no fiat.
Your only hope is you were actually holding crypto and they don't block withdrawals. Best case scenario you move your crypto to a fiat gateway exchange and hope to cash out there as fast as possible because it will have had become evident that cryptos were overvalued because of USDT (and even hypothetical USD in the system). Will most likely be too late as people that were already in fiat gateway exchanges already sold/cashed out. There will be enormous sell pressure. And no buyers.
The whole stablecoin issuance is idiotic and I just hope it crashes now and we won't see another bubble built on presumed capital, cause that will hurt way more people. All of this is a mess. Crypto is completely decoupled from real fiat now. The potential money that are in the crypto sphere is exponentially greater than available money to trade out of. Or maybe we should be grateful for stablecoins for finally crashing a system that would've crashed anyway in the long run.
submitted by 5ty54y5yh45 to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

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Live Bitcoin Liquidation Watch: march3 2020

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